Comparing my Beer Forecast with Reality

Early this year I helped write an analysis of the California Beer industry that included forecasts for 2010 of a number of different categories. With data out from the BOE for the first half of 2010, I decided to compare what happened with my forecast.

CA Beer Consumption Forecast Review

While the forecast is in the general area, clearly there is some room for improvement in the ARIMA statistical model I used. The BOE data for May (second from the right) was a bit dodgy and I suspect that there are still errors that make actual consumption higher than it reality.

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